Aggregation, Heterogeneous Autoregression and Volatility of Daily International Tourist Arrivals and Exchange Rates

Aggregation, Heterogeneous Autoregression and Volatility of

Seasonality in Tourism and Forecasting Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India

In the present age of globalization, technology-revolution and sustainable development, the presence of seasonality in tourist arrivals is considered as a key policy issue that affects the global tourism industry by creating instability in the demand and revenues. The seasonal component in a time-series distorts the prediction attempts for policy-making. In this context, it is quintessential to...

Welfare and excess volatility of exchange rates

Modelling Multivariate Shocks in International Tourist Arrivals to the Maldives

In the Maldives, although there were fewer fatalities compared with other countries in the Indian Ocean that were affected by the tsunami, there was widespread damage to housing and infrastructure. As a result, 14 islands out of the 200 inhabited islands were made completely uninhabitable. Approximately 5% of the population was displaced, a quarter of the tourist resorts were closed, and 8% of ...

Volatility in Foreign Exchange Rates

Four foreign exchange spot rate series, recorded on an hourly basis for a six-month period in 1986 are examined. A seasonal GARCH model is developed to describe the time-dependent volatility apparent in the percentage nominal return of each currency. Hourly patterns in volatility are found to be remarkably similar across currencies and appear to be related to the opening and closing of the worl...